Negotiating Bottlenecks

Priorities

A risk, or an opportunity, has higher priority according to:

• The severity of the risk, or the extent of the benefit.
• The likelihood of occurrence.
• The urgency of managing it.
• Any deficit (or excess) in attention currently being given.

We appear to be at the beginning of a mass extinction. A serious matter. The risk estimates in the table below are calculated from the perspective of human extinction.

Research and analysis can help with many aspects of these calculations; but without a record of human extinctions, we must end up estimating.

The units for priority are similar to percentage. Suppose we have 100 units of attention to give, then the priority shows how we should spend them.

Priorities change with time. If humans are still here in 100,000 years it is likely that fossil fuel emissions will have been long ago solved. For the weightings below, the time period during which this attention would be given is over the next century.

Extinction risks and their priority for attention

Whenever we apply ourselves to a project, we encounter barriers, and boosts.

The above attention budget adds up to approximately 90 out of our allocation of 100. Let's allow some of the remainder for risks which become apparent later (so they're not on the above list).

There are many measures which will help a number of the risks simultaneously or consequentially. Life hangs from many threads; and sometimes one thread supports a myriad of beings.

It is well to also reserve energy and attention to see that measures decided upon are carried out smoothly, fairly, and successfully. If it's not fair, it won't be stable; if it's not stable, it risks failing.

These ways we can remain responsive to opportunities and demands as they come into view.